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Prediction of the Market Price Trend of Bearing Steel

2022-06-15

Overview: From January to June 2022, the domestic output of bearing steel crude steel decreased by 0.67% year on year, and the output of bearing steel increased by 2.17% year on year. Reviewing the bearing steel market in July, the downstream demand and fund flow support were insufficient, and the market price was in a state of continuous decline. Up to now, the average price of 50 mm (continuous casting) bearing round steel in China is 5594 yuan/ton, down 560 yuan/ton from the end of June, with a month on month drop of 9.10%. Under the background that the demand for steel is expected to rise month on month, while the supply side has slightly decreased, the market price of bearing steel is expected to stabilize and rise slightly in August.


(1) Output of bearing steel from January to June 2022: steel increased year on year, crude steel decreased year on year

According to the statistics of Special Steel Association, from January to June 2022, the output of rough bearing steel of major excellent and special steel enterprises in China was 2.5067 million tons, down 0.67% compared with the same period last year; From January to June 2022, the output of bearing steel of major excellent and special steel enterprises in China was 2.2 million tons, an increase of 2.17% compared with the same period last year.


(2) From January to June 2022, the output of finished materials of bearing steel manufacturers: the output of steel plants increased year on year

It can be seen from Figure 2 that the manufacturers with large output of bearing steel are CITIC Special Steel (Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Special Steel, Qingdao Steel), Shagang (Northeast Special Steel, Yonggang) and Jiyuan Steel, accounting for 59% of the total output. From January to June 2022, the overall output of bearing steel is increasing. The output of Shigang, Laigang, Jiyuan, Jianlong, Zhongte, Shagang and other steel plants has increased compared with the same period last year. The output of Xining, Beiman, Bente, Zhongtian, Nangang, Juneng and other steel plants has decreased.


In July, the market price of bearing steel fell sharply as a whole, and downstream demand remained weak. At present, the transfer of steel plant inventory to social inventory has been reflected. The stock of bearing steel in the mainstream market is climbing, and the stock pressure of some bearing steel pipe plants is prominent. Recently, in the off-season atmosphere, the business confidence is obviously insufficient, and the market demand has been suppressed. With the reduction of the severity of the epidemic nationwide, the operating rate of downstream manufacturing enterprises has increased, and the overall demand is expected to increase month on month. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel will stabilize and rise slightly in August.

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